Showing posts with label Millennials. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Millennials. Show all posts

Friday, November 11, 2016

#RIPUSA, AmericaHangsItsHeadInShame Generation Screwed: How Millennials Are Being Exploited By Our Political System


Image result for Cartoon Trump wins
Millennials have been called everything from self-absorbed to lazy. Pundits have speculated on why America's youngest adult generation isn't buying cars and homes, getting married, having sex or children. Few are willing to point out, however, just how disadvantaged young adults are today.

One of the uniquely American beliefs is that each generation will do better than their parents—the janitor’s daughter becomes an accountant, the home care worker’s son becomes a teacher, or in my case, the steel worker’s daughter becomes a think-tank executive.

For much of our nation’s history, this kind of upward mobility was routine, as public investments in the post-war era created a middle class the likes of which the world had never seen. These investments overwhelmingly benefited white Americans, as Jim Crow and legal discrimination prohibited African Americans from enrolling in four-year colleges or buying a single-family home in the suburbs. The Civil Rights Act of 1964, which outlawed discrimination in the job market based on race, ethnicity, or gender—created a significant black middle class for the first time in our nation’s history. But the economic gains, particularly for black Americans, would not hold as a backlash against this progress propelled conservative economics into the political mainstream.

With the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980, the conservative orthodoxy of anti-spending, anti-taxes, and anti-regulation would begin its three-decades-long dominance in state and federal policymaking. Generation X, my generation, would be the first to feel the effects of a shrunken safety net, decreased public investment and deregulated financial markets. Families like mine, best described as blue-collar middle class, became an endangered species and today are nearly extinct.
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But it is the millennial generation, those born between 1981 and 2000, that would absorb the accumulated effect of three decades of trickle-down economics and laissez faire ideology. By almost any economic indicator—college attainment, wages or wealth—millennials are, and will likely continue to, fare worse than their parents.

One of the most profound generational shifts has been declining wages for people without college degrees and stagnant earnings for those with degrees. Today, the typical 25- to 34-year-old with a high school diploma earns $5,000 less than they did in 1980, after adjusting for inflation. Annual earnings have risen slightly for those with bachelor’s degrees or higher, rising from close to $49,000 in 1980 to $52,000 in 2014—modest growth that doesn’t remotely absorb the student debt payments that are now required to obtain a college degree. These trends were well underway before the Great Recession hit, as I documented at length in my 2006 book, Strapped: Why America’s 20- and 30-Somethings Can’t Get Ahead. The recession only intensified the generational decline in job quality and economic security that bruised Generation X and walloped millennials.

BY ALMOST ANY ECONOMIC INDICATOR—COLLEGE ATTAINMENT, WAGES OR WEALTH—MILLENNIALS ARE, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO, FARE WORSE THAN THEIR PARENTS.

Aggregate income trends mask substantial differences in earnings and employment by race and gender. For example, the typical young white worker earns about the same as their counterpart a generation or two ago, while the average millennial black and Latino worker earns slightly less than previous generations. Women’s earnings have increased thanks in large part to the percentage increase of millennial women with college degrees compared to previous generations. The story is different for young men who today earn more than $7,000 less annually than their dads made in 1980—a trend driven largely by the loss of good-paying manufacturing jobs for millennials without bachelor’s degrees.

Not only have millennial paychecks taken a beating—finding a full-time job has become harder, too. Seven years into the economic recovery, the percentage of part-time workers looking for full-time jobs is higher for millennials than it was for any other generation at this age, with a full 36 percent of part-time young workers in need of full-time jobs.

Today, the United States has the highest percentage of low-paid workers of any advanced nation as a result of decimated unions, the declining purchasing power of the minimum wage and historic inequality in both our political and economic systems. Rather than our democracy writing the rules for capitalism, capitalism is writing the rules for our democracy, and millennials are paying the steepest price.

For generations, our nation made steady progress in making college affordable for all who wanted a degree. For the baby boom generation, that meant well-funded public universities where a minimum-wage job combined with federal grants made it possible to pay tuition without going into debt. But that was then. Today, state higher ed. funding—which used to be the primary source of revenue for state colleges and universities—is at a 25-year low. As a result, tuition has risen substantially, shifting the burden of paying for college away from us as a society and firmly onto the backs of students in the form of college debt.

RATHER THAN OUR DEMOCRACY WRITING THE RULES FOR CAPITALISM, CAPITALISM IS WRITING THE RULES FOR OUR DEMOCRACY, AND MILLENNIALS ARE PAYING THE STEEPEST PRICE
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Overall student debt in the economy has increased from around $260 billion in 2003 to nearly $1.3 trillion today. While most students who graduated in the early 1990s did not take on debt for their degree, 7 in 10 millennial college students borrow today. But this debt-for-diploma system does not affect all millennials equally: Black students borrow more often and in higher amounts than white students, even at public colleges and universities. And the lowest income students—those who receive Pell grants—are far more likely to also need to borrow than their non-Pell receiving friends.

But taking out loans to pay for school is risky—especially given that one in three borrowers drop out of college. This problem is particularly pronounced at for-profit institutions, where two-thirds of black and Latino student borrowers drop out of four-year degree programs. As a result, millions of millennials are carrying student debt without the pay-boosting benefit of a college degree.

The millennial generation is the first generation in American history for whom debt is now required to obtain a college degree. This cost shift occurred at the very same time the demographics of college students changed to become more female, black, and brown—creating a system that today hardens racial and class privilege rather than ameliorating it. And the negative impacts of student debt don’t just occur during the “college years.” Households with a college degree and no debt have nearly $100,000 in average retirement savings, while college-educated households with debt have less than half that. Demos has previously found that even average levels of student loan debt may result in thelifetime wealth loss of more than $200,000, namely from lost retirement savings.

In the span of two generations, our nation has experienced declining economic mobility, rising inequality and widespread economic anxiety. These trends hit the working class first but inflict plenty of damage on the college-educated professional class too. How? Because the philosophy that allows employers to schedule their hourly workers week to week, with little advance notice, is the same philosophy that allows employers to expect their salaried workers to be “on” 24/7.

The policies that stripped away our factories are the same policies that are now yanking professional jobs out of the country. The political hostility toward people who are down on their luck and need help buying food is delivered by the same politicians who drastically cut higher-education funding. It’s an economic and governing philosophy that prioritizes profits over people, private interests over the public’s and austerity over investment. That’s the economic context in which millennials find themselves as they try to work and educate their way into the middle class. It isn’t working very well.

Thursday, November 10, 2016

#RIPUSA, #AmericaHangsItsHeadInShame Boomers in revolt: Was Trump’s shocking win an act of generational warfare? Once the baby boomers rebelled against their parents. Now they're trolling the grandkids by electing Donald Trump #ImpeachHimNow


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Baby boomers are the demographic group born during the post–World War II baby boom, approximately between the years 1946 and 1964. This includes people who are between 52 and 70 years old in 2016, according to the U.S. Census Bureau

In their youth, the millions of people born during the baby boom generation rebelled against their parents. Now as they head into retirement, they’re telling off the grandkids.

There was a lot of press attention on race and sex during the battle between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton for the White House. The big story just might be about age and income inequality.

Defined by the Pew Research Center as adults currently between 51 and 69 years of age, the group of people born after World War II is no longer the largest generation in America. According to exit polls, however, Trump’s success among the boomers is what gave him the White House.

There was a lot of discussion about how the rookie presidential candidate was strongly opposed by younger adults. Indeed, that proved to be true.

If the survey conducted by a consortium of news organizations is to be believed, voters younger than age 45 picked Clinton over Trump, 52 percent to 40 percent. Their numbers simply were not large enough to overwhelm the preferences of those 45 and older, who went for Trump 53 percent to 44 percent.

The same dynamic also powered Trump as he dispatched one Republican opponent after another before becoming the party nominee. In a Public Opinion Strategies study that sliced up the GOP primary electorate into several different demographic groups, just 32 percent of those between 17 and 29 years of age went for the billionaire real estate developer.

By contrast, Trump received 42.3 percent support from those over the age of 65 and 41.9 percent of the vote of those 45 to 64 years old.

The boomers kept up their Trump enthusiasm in the general election as well, comprising a greater share of voters than they did in 2012. According to the media exit polls, people 45 to 64 comprised 38 percent of the electorate four years ago. This time around, they were 40 percent.

They also backed Trump at a greater percentage than they did the previous Republican nominee, Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor received 51 percent of boomers’ votes in 2012, whereas the former reality TV star got a 53 percent share this year.

The population distribution of the baby boom generation also helped Trump. It looks as if he will lose the popular vote (although the final tallies are still weeks away) but his Electoral College totals are clear. As it turns out, the states where boomers comprise more than 25 percent of the population have 302 electoral votes, Trump is expected to win 306.

In the various swing states that frequently feature close contests between the two major parties and also have large boomer populations, Trump won 94 of the 112 electoral votes available. Clinton won New Hampshire, Virginia and three of Maine’s four electoral votes. Trump appears to have won one vote in Maine and all the votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and Iowa.

Trump also seems to have earned more than a few crossover votes from people who had supported President Barack Obama in the past. In 2012, Romney received 7 percent of the vote from self-identified Democrats. In 2016, Trump received 9 percent.

Economic uncertainty seemed to drive a lot of Trump supporters. According to another exit poll commissioned by Politico, Trump won the votes of people concerned about jobs and the economy.

In a speech apparently delivered last year at a private campaign fund-raiser (the transcript was provided by WikiLeaks), former president Bill Clinton seemingly saw some of the anger and frustration that appears to have motivated many of these former Democrat-voting white boomers to turn out for Trump:


We have incredible debates all over America that shouldn’t exist between people in different racial groups because they don’t trust law enforcement anymore.

And in the middle of all this we learned, breathtakingly, that middle-aged, non-college-educated white Americans’ life expectancy is going down and is now lower than Hispanics, even though [Hispanics] make less money. And the gap between African-Americans and whites is closing, but unfortunately not because the death rate among African-Americans is dropping but because the death rate among white Americans is rising.

Why? Because they don’t have anything to look forward to when they get up in the morning. Because their lives are sort of stuck in neutral.

The boomer vote definitely helped Trump, but it’s also starting to appear that Hillary Clinton’s poor performance among younger voters also damaged her during the general election.

To some degree, Democrats ought to have seen this coming. During the primaries, younger voters overwhelmingly preferred Clinton’s rival Bernie Sanders. According to a study from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, voters younger than 30 cast more than 2 million ballots for the Vermont senator compared with just 766,000 for Clinton.

The general election votes haven’t all been tallied, so it could be premature to say this — many people to this day incorrectly believe that Mitt Romney received fewer votes than John McCain — but it’s starting to appear that Donald Trump won partly because Bernie Sanders supporters didn’t want to vote for Clinton.

Much of that apparent reluctance may have stemmed from Clinton’s long career in politics and her position at the very top of the Democratic establishment. As Thomas Frank has noted, her background was probably not a good fit for America’s current politics.

As the author of the best-selling “What’s the Matter with Kansas?” and a recent tome warning Democrats away from racial identity politics and toward progressive economics, Frank wrote a blistering postmortem that is sure to be bookmarked by many a Democrat wondering what went wrong:


Why, oh why, did it have to be Hillary Clinton? Yes, she has an impressive resume; yes, she worked hard on the campaign trail. But she was exactly the wrong candidate for this angry, populist moment. An insider when the country was screaming for an outsider. A technocrat who offered fine-tuning when the country wanted to take a sledgehammer to the machine.

She was the Democratic candidate because it was her turn and because a Clinton victory would have moved every Democrat in Washington up a notch. Whether or not she would win was always a secondary matter, something that was taken for granted. Had winning been the party’s number one concern, several more suitable candidates were ready to go. There was Joe Biden, with his powerful plainspoken style, and there was Bernie Sanders, an inspiring and largely scandal-free figure. Each of them would probably have beaten Trump, but neither of them would really have served the interests of the party insiders.

And so Democratic leaders made Hillary their candidate even though they knew about her closeness to the banks, her fondness for war, and her unique vulnerability on the trade issue — each of which Trump exploited to the fullest. They chose Hillary even though they knew about her private email server. They chose her even though some of those who studied the Clinton Foundation suspected it was a sketchy proposition.

Frank’s criticisms and Bill Clinton’s remarks on economic stagnation recall those of filmmaker Michael Moore, who has warned Democrats for the past year that Trump was going to win the election.

“I know a lot of people in Michigan that are planning to vote for Trump, and they don’t necessarily agree with him,” the left-leaning documentarian said at a public event in late October.

“Trump’s election is going to be the biggest ‘fuck you’ ever recorded in human history — and it will feel good,” Moore argued, adding later in the speech that a protest vote for Trump would do nothing to solve the problems his supporters see in America.

The exit question for Democrats following Clinton’s stunning defeat is whether the party hierarchy will change and can adapt to meet the needs its core voters didn’t see being fulfilled.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Here's what the Electoral College map would look like if only millennials voted by Celeste Katz ( Republished with permission of the Author and MIC Daily in which the article first appeared). Follow the hyperlinks to understand better this article.


Here's what the Electoral College map would look like if only millennials voted by Celeste Katz ( Republished with permission of the Author and MIC Daily in which the article first appeared). Follow the hyperlinks to understand better this article.


IN COLLABORATION WITH

America's Next... is Mic's home for coverage of the issues, people and moments that matter most in the 2016 presidential election.


A real-time Electoral College tracking map suggests not only a disappointing Election Day for presidential hopeful Donald Trump, but potential trouble down the road for the Republican Party he represents.

A Mic sneak peek at a new interactive map from SurveyMonkey, which goes public at 9 a.m. Tuesday, shows Democrat Hillary Clinton ahead not just overall in Electoral College projections, but with an overwhelming advantage among millennial voters.
Clinton has a nearly nationwide advantage over Trump with millennials.Source: SurveyMonkey

A total of 270 Electoral College votes are required to capture the presidency.

In the 2016 election cycle, 69 million millennials are eligible to vote — a number equal to that of baby boomers.

According to SurveyMonkey, which is offering mapping based on more than 30,000 interviews conducted since Oct. 8 and weighted by state-level voter demographics, Clinton dominates among the younger set.

"The data among millennials point to big and widespread advantages for Clinton heading into the final stretch. The challenges some Democrats feared she might face with young voters after a tough primary fight against Bernie Sanders haven't materialized," Jon Cohen, SurveyMonkey's chief research officer, said to Mic.

That's not all.

"Looking beyond 2016, the numbers among white millennials may be particularly troubling for Republican strategists," Cohen said, pointing to data that backs up longstanding fears about the future of the GOP in the absence of a successful effort to broaden its base.

"Trump is ahead in only 17 states among young white voters," Cohen noted.
Trump does better among white millennials, but still trails Clinton.Source: SurveyMonkey

"In addition to the headwinds the party faces among nonwhite voters of all ages, this deficit adds to the party's obstacles ahead."

After a scorching post-mortem conducted after Republican Mitt Romney's loss to President Barack Obama in 2012, the GOP made some effort to ramp up its outreach to nonwhite voters.

Apparently not helping achieve that goal: Trump's hardline stances on issues such as immigration and his much-questioned conduct toward women, coupled with GOP resistance to de-emphasizing wedge social issues such as abortion and marriage in order to attract next-generation Republicans.

In 2016's battleground states, according to data SurveyMonkey provided toMic ahead of the full map release, the GOP may also be looking at trouble down the road as its base ages out — unless the Trump phenomenon is a total aberration.

In Florida, for example, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Clinton up just under 4 percentage points overall. However, SurveyMonkey shows Clinton up 24% with millennials, with a double-digit advantage even among thosewithout a college education.
SurveyMonkey data shows Clinton ahead with Florida millennial voters.Source: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The RCP averages for Ohio show the candidates in a dead heat, with Trump slightly ahead. But SurveyMonkey has Clinton up by 13% among millennials there, leading in every demographic except among men, where the candidates are in a statistical tie.

And in Iowa, where RCP averages show Trump ahead by under 4 percentage points overall, Clinton bests the Republican among millennials by about twice that figure.

All that said, older voters have traditionally voted in higher numbers as a group than their younger counterparts for an array of reasons, so pre-election poll results don't necessarily guarantee final outcomes. And there's no question 2016 has been an unusual presidential cycle, to say the least, which hasstrained the utility of a lot of conventional political wisdom.

These new Electoral College test cases with millennials are a product of the shareable SurveyMonkey map's options to view state-level results in key brackets such as gender, age, race, income and education level.

The SurveyMonkey data will be updated daily through the Nov. 8 election. When the GOP will next dramatically update its play for new, younger voters remains to be seen.