Senate Republican leadership and vulnerable GOP incumbents are wrestling with the dilemma of whether to fully withdraw their support from Donald Trump.
They are weighing the potential impact of further party division on voter turnout versus the potential cost to the GOP brand if they stick with the party’s provocative nominee.
It has become clear to party leaders and strategists over the past 24 hours that Trump’s chances of winning the presidency are less than 20 percent, if not less than 10 percent. Now their main concern is saving the Senate Republican majority.
Trump’s late-night apology for the obscene sexual comments he made about women in 2005 has failed to quell the storm, particularly over the graphic line about grabbing women “by the p---y.”
Democratic strategists say it’s too early to say whether Trump’s implosion will revive their chances in states such as Ohio and Florida, but they think it can make a difference in toss-up states such as New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
The question for the GOP is how far it’s leaders should go in denouncing him.
“Candidates, officeholders, Republican leaders need to not just disavow the comments, they need to unendorsed Trump and they need to work hard to preserve the Senate, the House, down-ballot races, their own personal integrity and the integrity of the party,” said John Weaver, who served as a senior strategist to Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s 2016 presidential campaign.
But other strategists say down-ballot Republican candidates need to look closely at the demographics and political trends in their home states and do what’s best for their own re-elections.
“Everybody is running a local race, which is what they’ve done from the start,” said a Senate Republican strategist. “Voters are looking for someone who can represent them and put them first, before a Clinton presidency or a Trump presidency. [Candidates] should say whatever is necessary to convince voters they will do that.”
While audio of Trump’s lewd remarks about seducing women have led many Republicans and pundits in Washington to write off any chances of an Election Day victory, voters may judge other factors as more important, the strategist cautioned.
“People are skeptical of Washington and skeptical of the press. Trump has used a tone that reflects that skepticism,” the source added.
So far most candidates have stuck to condemning his lewd comments, caught on a live mic more than a decade ago, and only two in top-tier races, Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) in New Hampshire and Rep. Joe Heck (R) in Nevada, have said they won’t vote for him and they and their family will vote for Hillary Clinton on November 8th.
But strategists in both parties expect more will move in the same direction as Heck and Ayotte.
“It’s Saturday. The floodgates will open, but slower than they would on a weekday,” predicted a Senate Democratic strategist.
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who earlier this year looked to be highly endangered but has since opened a comfortable lead in the polls, announced Saturday afternoon he will no longer back Trump.
“Donald Trump’s behavior this week, concluding with the disclosure of his demeaning comments about women and his boasts about sexual assaults, make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy,Cindy and I will be voting for Hillary Clinton” McCain said in a statement.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Friday condemned Trump’s comments as “repugnant and unacceptable,” but he stopped short of withdrawing his endorsement. Pols show the control of the Senate is locked at 50 : 50 with 6 Senate Seats held by Republicans with fragile majorities eroding with Trump Nationwide Support declining .
Senate GOP Whip John Cornyn (Texas) said he was “disgusted” by Trump’s comments and “profoundly disappointed” the presidential contest has become a race to the bottom — but he also declined to call on Trump withdraw from the ticket, " but my wife and daughters will not be voting for Trump on November 8th and I may follow suite"
Senate leaders are letting Republican candidates and officeholders weigh the scandal and decide for themselves how to react without pressure from above.
But they gave a clear signal of which way the GOP leadership is leaning when Senate Republican Conference Chairman John Thune (S.D.), who is in charge of the conference’s messaging operation, tweeted Saturday that Trump should step aside and let his running mate, Indiana Gov.Mike Pence, have the party’s nomination.In a statement released by his office he said he and his family would not be voting for Trump.
“That’s not just Sen. Thune talking, that’s a coordinated statement on behalf of the Republican leadership at this point and that’s a DEFCON Level 1,” said Ron Bonjean, who served as spokesman for former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and as chief of staff of the Senate Republican Conference.
A growing number of congressional Republicans and GOP governors have either rescinded their endorsements of Trump or are calling on him to withdraw from the ticket entirely.
Bonjean said it won’t be as easy for Republican candidates to announce they won’t vote for Trump, however, given how many of his supporters remain loyal in key states.
“They’re going to have follow their conscience, but they’re going to have to go with what they think the voters of their state are thinking. If you’re in a battleground state like Pennsylvania you may end up walking away from the nominee,” he said.
“Some Republican candidates are going to wait and see how Donald Trump performs over the weekend and if there is any more opposition research dumped out there,” he added.
Senate Republican strategists had argued for months that it would hurt Senate Republican candidates to renounce Trump because they need him to run closely with Hillary Clinton in battleground states such as Pennsylvania and North Carolina to give GOP incumbents a chance to win.
But Trump’s comments from 11 years ago( and more recently in the current campaign) are now seen as so egregious that the likely negative impact on female voters, moderate Republicans and independents is so severe that some GOP strategists argue they won’t be offset by any new voters his unorthodox campaign might bring to the polls.
Vin Weber, a longtime Republican strategist who advised Mitt Romney’s presidential campaigns, said Republicans now have no choice but to renounce Trump.Mitt Romney has already released a statement that he and his wife, Ann will not be voting for Trump on November 8th neither will his five sons or daughter in laws .
Ex President and first Lady George H.W. and Barbara Bush announced in early September that they would be voting for Hillary Clinton. Both of George W. Bush's daughters Jenna and Barbara and wife Laura have stated in interviews that they will not be voting for Trump.Jenna , an NBC correspondent has endorsed Hillary Clinton. Jeb Bush has already said he and his wife will vote for Hillary Clinton.
“They tried to be loyal to the ticket and he’s gone too far and they can’t,” he said. “They should formally disassociate themselves from him and call on him to resign and announce they cannot support him.”
Weber has called on his party to dump Trump for a while, drawing barbs from other strategists who warned it would divide the party and depress voter turnout.
His advice is now looking prescient.
“It’s been so obvious that this is where it’s been headed for a long time,” he said.
But the question is whether it’s too late for Republicans to back away from Trump, only a month away from Election Day.
Democrats argue that’s the case.
New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan (D), who is running for Senate against Ayotte, on Saturday accused her opponent of making a “craven attempt at political self-preservation.”
“Her words are far too little and far too late,” Hassan said in a statement. Earlier this week, Ayotte was forced to walk back a debate answer in which she said Trump was a role model.
Tom Lopach, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said Saturday that Democratic candidates won’t let GOP incumbents wriggle away from Trump so easily.
“The time for courage has passed and Sen. Ayotte solidified her role in Trump’s party long ago. New Hampshire voters won’t be fooled by this stunning example of politics at its worst,” he said.
The list of Elected Republican continues to grow and now includes
“I have reached the decision that I can no longer endorse Donald Trump. This is not a decision that I have reached lightly, but his pattern of behavior has left me no choice. ... Make no mistake. We need conservative leadership in the White House. I urge Donald Trump to step aside and allow the Republican Party to put forward a conservative candidate like Mike Pence who can defeat Hillary Clinton.” — Sen. Mike Crapo of Idaho.
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“Donald Trump’s comments regarding women were disgraceful and appalling. There are absolutely no circumstances under which it would ever be appropriate to speak of women in such a way. It is now clear Donald Trump is not fit to be president of the United States and cannot defeat Hillary Clinton. I believe he should step aside and allow Governor Pence to lead the Republican ticket.” — Rep. Bradley Byrne of Alabama.
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“I can no longer look past the pattern of behavior and comments that have been made by Donald Trump. ...I believe our only option is to formally ask Mr. Trump to step down and to allow Republicans the opportunity to elect someone who will provide us with the strong leadership so desperately needed and one that Americans deserve.” — Senate candidate Rep. Joe Heck of Nevada.
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“I have wanted to support the candidate our party nominated. He was not my choice, but as a past nominee, I thought it important I respect the fact that Donald Trump won a majority of the delegates by the rules our party set. But Donald Trump’s behavior this week, concluding with the disclosure of his demeaning comments about women and his boasts about sexual assaults, make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy. ... Cindy and I will not vote for Donald Trump. I have never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate and we will vote for Hillary Clinton. ” — Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
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“I am committed to defeating Hillary Clinton. The only way this is now possible is with a new nominee that reflects the values of our country and our party. I will not vote for Donald Trump. If Donald Trump wishes to defeat Hillary Clinton, he should do the only thing that will all us to do so — step aside, and allow Mike Pence to be the Republican Party’s nominee.” — Sen. Cory Gardner of Colorado.
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“I’m incredibly disappointed in our party’s candidate. And unlike the Democrats who have proven completely unwilling to hold secretary Clinton accountable for her illegal activities that endangered our national security, I am willing to hold Mr. Trump accountable. I am therefore calling for him to step aside and to allow Mike Pence to lead our party.” — Rep. Chris Stewart of Utah.
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“Enough is enough. Donald Trump should withdraw in favor of Governor Mike Pence. This election is too important.” — South Dakota Gov. Dennis Daugaard.
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“I cannot support and will not vote for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton to be president of the United States. I will write in Governor Mike Pence for President.” — Rep. Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey.
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“Donald Trump’s comments are inexcusable. I am appalled that he would brag about violating a woman’s physical boundaries. As a husband and father of two daughters, I denounce his comments and the behavior that it incites. I believe that Mike Pence would be the best nominee for the Republican Party to defeat Hillary Clinton.” — Rep. Scott Garrett of New Jersey.
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“Character matters. @realDonaldTrump has been saying outrageous, offensive things the whole time. He should have stepped aside long ago.I will vote for Hillary Clinton” — Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan.
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“We must have a conservative in the White House to restore accountability, opportunity and security. For the sake of our Constitution and the rule of law, we must defeat Hillary Clinton. Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence.” — Former 2016 GOP presidential candidate Carly Fiorina.
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“Donald Trump should withdraw and Mike Pence should be our nominee effective immediately.” — Sen. John Thune of South Dakota.
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“I never endorsed Donald Trump and cannot in good conscience support or vote for a man who degrades women, insults minorities and has no clear path to keep our country safe. He should step aside for a true conservative to beat Hillary Clinton.” Rep. Will Hurd of Texas.
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“For the past several months I have been one of the few who refused to endorse Donald Trump. I have said all along that I was still waiting for Mr. Trump to demonstrate his commitment to the kinds of principles and policies the people in Utah’s 4th Congressional District want in their elected leaders. Mr. Trump has yet to clear that bar and his behavior and bravado have reached a new low. I cannot vote for him. For the good of the party, and the country, he should step aside.” — Rep. Mia Love of Utah.
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“Mr. Trump himself has acknowledged this and identified this series of events tonight as a mere distraction. Well, with all due respect sir, you, sir, are the distraction. Your conduct, sir, is the distraction. It’s a distraction from the very principles that will help us win in November. You, yourself sir, Mr. Trump, have stated repeatedly that the goal, the objective has got to be to defeat Hillary Clinton in November. I couldn’t agree more. It’s for precisely that reason, Mr. Trump, that I respectfully ask you, with all due respect, to step aside, step down, allow someone else to carry the banner of these principles, these principles that have made our country great, these principles that will stand as a beacon of hope to the American family rather than weighing down the American people, rather than weighing down the very principles that will help us win in November.” — Sen. Mike Lee of Utah.
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“As a woman, a mother, and a grandmother to three young girls, I am deeply offended by Mr. Trump’s remarks, and there is no excuse for the disgusting and demeaning language. Women have worked hard to gain the dignity and respect we deserve. The appropriate next step may be for him to re-examine his candidacy.I will vote for Hillary Clinton and urge all women to do the same in this election, Republican and Democrat. ” — Sen. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia.
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“In a campaign cycle that has been nothing but a race to the bottom — at such a critical moment for our nation — and with so many who have tried to be respectful of a record primary vote, the time has come for Governor Pence to lead the ticket.” — Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman.
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“For the good of the country, and to give the Republicans a chance of defeating Hillary Clinton, Mr. Trump should step aside. His defeat at this point seems almost certain. And four years of Hillary Clinton is not what is best for this country. Mr. Trump should put the country first and do the right thing.” — Rep. Mike Coffman of Colorado.
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“This is disgusting, vile and disqualifying. No woman should ever be subjected to this type of obscene behavior and it is unbecoming of anybody seeking high office. In light of these comments, Donald Trump should step aside and allow our party to replace him with Mike Pence or another appropriate nominee from the Republican Party. I cannot in good conscience vote for Donald Trump and I will never vote for Hillary Clinton.” — Rep. Barbara Comstock of Virginia.
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“As disappointed as I’ve been with his antics throughout this campaign, I thought supporting the nominee was the best thing for our country and our party. Now, it is abundantly clear that the best thing for our country and our party is for Trump to step aside and allow a responsible, respectable Republican to lead the ticket.” — U.S. Rep. Martha Roby of Alabama.
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“I cannot and will not support Donald Trump for president. He has forfeited the right to be our party’s nominee.I will vote for Hillary Clinton is this election whose record on Woman issues is impeccable ” — Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski.
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“Keeping Republicans in the Senate majority is critical to the economic and national security of Alaska and America. As for the White House, Donald Trump should step aside. I will support Mike Pence for president.” — Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan.
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“I’m horrified by #TrumpTape news. @realDonaldTrump campaign is a poisonous mix of bigotry & ignorance. Enough! He needs to step down.” — Former Gov. George Pataki of New York.
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