Obama is an asset — and a challenge for Hillary Clinton

 





















On the third night of the Democratic National Convention, President Obama gave his full support to Hillary Clinton, Tim Kaine accepted his VP nomination and speakers had more to say about Donald Trump.



(Photo: Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY)

PHILADELPHIA — Count President Obama as one of Hillary Clinton’s most potent assets — and as one of her biggest challenges.

Obama-as-asset was in the spotlight at the Democratic National Convention on Wednesday night. The president brought just about everybody in the hall to their feet with a speech designed to boost her with the electoral coalition that twice has elected him to the White House. Her past rival and former boss, he delivered what amounted to an enthusiastic recommendation for her job promotion.

“You know, nothing truly prepares you for the demands of the Oval Office," Obama said. "But Hillary’s been in the room, She’s been part of those decisions. ... Even in the midst of crisis, she listens to people, and she keeps her cool; she treats everybody with respect. And no matter how daunting the odds, no matter how much people try to knock her down, she never, ever quits.

“That is the Hillary I know. That’s the Hillary I’ve come to admire. And that’s why I can say with confidence there has never been a man or a woman — not me, not Bill, nobody — more qualified than Hillary Clinton to serve as president of the United States of America.”


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But Obama-as-challenge was equally clear at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland last week, when Donald Trump promised dramatic change to the majority of voters in both parties who are dissatisfied by the direction of the country. He is tying her to every stumble and setback in the Obama administration, from the ambush of police officers in Dallas to the rise of the Islamic State.

"The problems we face now — poverty and violence at home, war and destruction abroad — will last only as long as we continue relying on the same politicians who created them," Trump declared in his acceptance speech. "A change in leadership is required to change these outcomes."

At a news conference in Florida on Wednesday, Trump's tone was less somber but his message was the same, mocking the assertion that Clinton could be a "change-maker." That's the word Bill Clinton repeatedly used in his speech to the Democratic convention Tuesday night, when signs declaring "change-maker" were distributed throughout the Wells Fargo Center.

"In terms of change, she's been there 30 years!" Trump exclaimed. "She's been there 30 years!"


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That is one of Trump's most powerful themes. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll this month, 56% of those surveyed said they wanted the next president to bring major changes in the way the government operates — that fits with Trump's vow — while just 41% wanted someone with a steady approach. That would be Hillary Clinton.

Independent voters, the sort who typically determine election outcomes, preferred change by double digits.


President Obama and Hillary Clinton wave following a campaign event at the Charlotte Convention Center in Charlotte, N.C., on July 5, 2016. (Photo: Susan Walsh, AP)


In an electorate demanding a new direction — albeit without a clear consensus about precisely what direction that might be — Clinton’s alliance with the outgoing president reinforces the perception, her groundbreaking gender aside, that she is a candidate of the status quo.

"You have to be for continuity and change at the same time," says Bill Galston, a veteran of Democratic presidential campaigns and a White House aide to Bill Clinton. "That's not an easy assignment, but it is the inescapable assignment."


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Some of the strains have been apparent this week in the debate over the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the 12-nation trade deal that Obama negotiated and considers a significant part of his legacy. While she was his secretary of State, Clinton called it "the gold standard" of trade deals. But in the face of fierce opposition by primary rivalBernie Sanders and other progressives, Clinton has come out against it.

As Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine addressed the convention Wednesday, speaking just before Obama as he accepted the vice presidential nomination, he was heckled by Sanders' protesters holding up 'No TPP' signs.

There’s a reason the relationship between second-term presidents and his party’s nominee to succeed him — call them political in-laws — are fraught.

In 1960, it was President Eisenhower who seemed reluctant to do much for Richard Nixon. Two months before the election, when he was asked at a news conference to cite a major idea of Nixon's he had adopted, Eisenhower famously joked, "If you give me a week, I might think of one."

In 2000, it was Democratic nominee Al Gore who kept his distance from the scandal-scarred President Clinton. And in 2008, Republican nominee John McCain shied from a close embrace by President George W. Bush, whose approval ratings tanked to 22% in the weeks before the election, pulled down by the Iraq war and a financial meltdown.

In those three elections, Nixon lost. So did Gore and McCain.

In this one, though, the embrace between Clinton and Obama is closer and less conditional than any other in the modern era — a decision illustrated as Clinton unexpectedly came on stage when Obama finished his address. They pointed at one another, hugged, and raised their hands in a victory salute.


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The instinct for change after eight years of White House control is one reason it’s so difficult for a party to hold the White House for a third consecutive term. In the past six decades, that’s happened only once, in 1988, when then-vice president George H.W. Bush was elected to succeed the popular President Reagan during a time of prosperity..

This time, Obama's approval rating in recent months have risen above 50%, the highest levels for him in nearly three years and a crucial dividing line.

Political scientist Alan Abramowitz of Emory University studied the relationship between an outgoing president's approval rating and his party's prospects in the next election. Since World War II, the three candidates who sought to succeed presidents who had approval ratings below 50% were defeated. Two of the three candidates who sought to succeed presidents who had approval ratings above 50% won the popular vote.

That is crucial for Clinton, who of course wants to win.



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Hillary Clinton on the campaign trail
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Clinton meets with local residents at the Jones St. Java House on April 14, 2015, in LeClaire, Iowa. Charlie Neibergall, AP

It's also crucial for Obama, who wants Clinton to win, in part, to ensure that Republicans would be stymied in their promises to undermine the Affordable Care Act, revise financial regulations and reverse executive action on immigration — that is, to dismantle Obama's legacy.

"Politically, having a Democrat succeed the president is critical, I think, to staying on the path that he has set forth," John Podesta, a former White House counselor for Obama who is now chairman of Clinton's campaign, told reporters at a breakfast hosted by Bloomberg Politics. "It consolidates the gain that he's made."


President Barack Obama stands with Hillary Clinton after Obama spoke during the 2016 Democratic National Convention at Wells Fargo Center. (Photo: Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY)

In his address, Obama defended his legacy, attacked Trump — and lobbied for Clinton.

"Look, Hillary’s got her share of critics," he said toward the end of his speech, saying she had been caricatured by the right and left. "She knows that sometimes in those 40 years, she’s made mistakes, just like I have; just like we all do. That’s what happens when we try. ...

"And if you’re serious about our democracy, you can’t afford to stay home just because she might not align with you on every issue," he went on to a cheer from the packed arena. "And we’re going to carry Hillary to victory this fall, because that’s what the moment demands."



















Hillary Clinton surprised the crowd at the Democratic National Convention by walking out onstage after President Obama's speech. The pair shared a hug, to the delight of the crowd.