Melania Trump least popular spouse since 1988

Melania Trump Is One Of The Least Popular Spouses Of A Nominee Since 1988



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Melania Trump, wife of Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, delivers a speech on the first day of the Republican National Convention on July 18, 2016 at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio.




It’s difficult to cover campaign stories involving candidate spouses. Are they political combatants? Bystanders? A mix of both? But the story of this convention right now is Melania Trump. Last night, she gave a speech at the Republican National Convention that in some portions mirrored Michelle Obama’s speech at the 2008 Democratic National Convention. I have no idea how much effect, if any, accusations of plagiarism will have on the campaign, but it’s clear that Melania Trump is already one of the least popular nominee spouses since 1988.

According to Gallup, Melania Trump has just a 28 percent favorable rating compared to a 32 percent unfavorable rating. That means her net favorability rating is -4 percentage points. That’s lower than Bill Clinton’s net favorability, which is +6 percentage points, according to a recent CNN/ORC survey. It’s also lower than the net favorability of every presidential nominee’s spouse in every final campaign poll that asked the question since 1988.

Melania Trump isn’t popular, but it may not matter

YEAR	SPOUSE	NET FAVORABILITY	SPOUSE WON
1992	Barbara Bush	+62
2004	Laura Bush	+57	✓
2000	Tipper Gore	+47
2012	Michelle Obama	+44	✓
2000	Laura Bush	+39	✓
1988	Barbara Bush	+37	✓
1996	Elizabeth Dole	+34
1988	Kitty Dukakis	+31
2008	Michelle Obama	+29	✓
2008	Cindy McCain	+21
2012	Ann Romney	+21
1992	Hillary Clinton	+14	✓
1996	Hillary Clinton	+6	✓
2016	Bill Clinton	+6	—
2004	Teresa Kerry	-2
2016	Melania Trump	-4	—

Data for elections prior to 2016 comes from the final poll taken of spouse popularity during the campaign.

SOURCE: CNN / ROPER CENTER

Of course, having a popular spouse is no guarantee of winning an election. Barbara Bush, in 1992, was the most popular spouse from 1988 to the present, and her husband, George H.W. Bush, went on to lose that election. Moreover, being an unpopular spouse isn’t a guarantee that you’re going to lose an election, either. Hillary Clinton had the second-lowest net favorability of any spouse of a nominee in 1996, and Bill Clinton easily won re-election. John Kerry nearly won the 2004 election despite his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, being the only spouse with a net negative favorability rating at the end of the campaign since 1988.